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American Idol Finale: Can We Predict the Winner Once Again?

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On last night’s episode Crystal Bowersox and Lee DeWyze competed for the final time for the coveted title of American Idol.  Each performed 3 songs, the first was their favorite song of the season, the second was chosen by executive producer Simon Fuller and the third is the first single they will release if they win tonight.

 
For his favorite song Lee chose “The Boxer.”  The judges were pleased, for the most part, with his performance.  Simon Fuller chose “Everybody Hurts” for his second song.  The judges again gave Lee some positive feedback but Ellen said she wished he would have let go a bit more and Simon said he seemed nervous.  For his final song, and possible single, Lee sang “Beautiful Day.” The judges were pleased with his final performance to which Simon said that the competition was designed for someone like him.

For her first song Crystal chose “Me and Bobby McGee” for which all of the judges gave Crystal positive feeback.  The song Fuller chose for Crystal was “Black Velvet,” the judges were again impressed. And finally she sang “Up To The Mountain” for her last song, and potential single.  The judges also praised her for this performance.  In fact Simon said “I thought that was by far the performance and the song of the night. And since this is going to be the final critique I’m ever going to give, that was outstanding.”

In order to determine who is most likely to be named the Season 9 American Idol; we looked at social media and search data. Who do you think will win tonight?

If you have been keeping up with Season 9 please share your thoughts by commenting below. But before you do, check out the facts from search and social media data that we have gathered below.
 

Chatter about Lee DeWyze is much stronger on Twitter and Google than it is for Crystal.  Tough Crystal has  stronger showing on Digg and YouTube.

Google Insights:
 

Google Insight data shows an overwhelming growth in popularity of searches for “American Idol Lee,” “Lee DeWyze” and “American Idol Hallelujah,” which is a song Lee performed on the show. 

Will Lee's sudden surge in online searches and social media mentions translate into more votes?  Tell us what you think.  And don’t forget to tune into tonight to find out who wins Season 9 of American Idol!

 **If you are a new reader to ymarketing's American Idol Prediction Project, check out our past blogs to understand how our Idol Prediction Project works, and how it led to the correct upset prediction of Kris Allen over Adam Lambert in 2009.

Who Does Search and Social Media Data Say Will Go Home Tonight?

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American Idol Season 9 is quickly coming to a close. With only 3 contestants left, the competition is growing in intensity. On last night's show the final 3 contestants sang 2 solos a piece, one of which the contestants chose and one that the judges chose for them.

Lee DeWyze sang "Simple Man" and "Hallelujah"

Crystal Bowersox sang "Maybe I'm Amazed" and "Come to My Window"

Casey James sang "Daughters" and "OK, It's Alright With Me"

The judges praised Lee's performance of "Simple Man" and gave Crystal mostly positive remarks for her performance of "Come to My Window," but they were not impressed with Casey's rendition of "OK, It's Alright With Me."

Again this week we looked at social media and search data to determine who we believe will be going home tonight. Who do you think will make it to the finale?

If you have been keeping up with Season 9 please share your thoughts by commenting below. But before you do, check out the facts from search and social media data that we have gathered below.

 It looks like though Crystal was the clear front runner in the beginning of the season, Lee has been gaining momentum in recent weeks. Casey is clearly falling behind in popularity and will likely be the contestant to go home tonight.

According to a Tweet from Access Hollywood, Lee and Crystal are taking the lead:

 **If you are a new reader to ymarketing's American Idol Prediction Project, check out our past blogs to understand how our Idol Prediction Project works, and how it led to the correct upset prediction of Kris Allen over Adam Lambert in 2009.

American Idol: Who Will Be Eliminated Tonight? Let’s Ask Twitter and YouTube

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With only 4 contestants remaining we’re nearing the end of American Idol Season 9.  On last night’s episode (5.11.2010), Grammy and Academy Award winner Jamie Foxx returned as a guest mentor to help the final four prepare to sing hit songs from popular movies.  Each contestant sang a solo and a duet.  The judges were unimpressed with the solos but gave rave reviews for the duets.

The four finalists include: Crystal Bowersox, Lee DeWyze, Casey James, and Michael Lynche.

Who do you think will be eliminated tonight? We want to hear from you!  If you have been following American Idol Season 9, please comment below and tell us who you think is going to be the next American Idol. But before you do, check out the facts we have gathered from our search engine and social media data.

Celebrity Twitter Endorsements:

Justin Bieber recently tweeted about how amazing one of Crystal’s performances was.

Alex Lambert, a former contestant, showed his support for Lee calling him the “next idol.”

Lindsey Lohan showed her support for Casey by simply calling him “American Idol.”

Momentum is building in Twitter and YouTube

The most compelling numbers lay within Twitter and YouTube.  While Crystal was the front runner for weeks, Lee seems to be catching momentum; making this somewhat of a 2 horse race.  Casey comes in behind both in sheer search and social media numbers but Michael seems to be trailing them all.  If the momentum continues Lee DeWyze just may take the coveted title of American Idol over season-long frontrunner Crystal Bowersox.
What do you think?  Will our actually predict the outcome of American Idol Season 9? 

**If you are a new reader to ymarketing's American Idol Prediction Project, check out our past blogs to understand how our Idol Prediction Project works, and how it led to the correct upset prediction of Kris Allen over Adam Lambert in 2009. 

Can Google & Twitter Continue to Predict Who Will Be Voted Off American Idol?

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And then there were 6...

As the 2010 Season of American Idol comes to a close there is no shortage of speculation as to who will take the coveted title of American Idol 2010. On Tuesday night's episode (4/27/2010), the contestants each sang a Shania Twain song and America then voted for their favorite performers. The votes are now in and the top 5 will be revealed tonight.

If you have been keeping up with American Idol Season 9, please tell us who you think will be eliminated this week by commenting below. But before you do, check out the facts we gathered below.

NOTE: If you are a new reader to ymarketing's American Idol Prediction Project please check out our past blogs to understand our Idol Prediction Project works, and how it led to the correct upset prediction of Kris Allen over Adam Lambert in 2009.

What the data tells us about tonight:

After reviewing our search and social media indicators it appears that tonight Crystal and Lee will safely make it into the top 5. Michael and Aaron, on the other hand, are most likely to be in the bottom three; leaving a toss-up between Casey and Siobhan for the remaining spot in the bottom 3.

What is Twitter telling us?

AC Television said:
@AC_TV: People Get Ready Crystal Bowersox; Best American Idol Performance of All Time: Review on... http://bit.ly/9bNJZR

According to the Adam Lambert fan site:
@_adam_lambert_ Why Lee Dewyze Will Win 'American Idol': Crystal Bowersox might be the front-runner, but so was Adam Lambert... http://bit.ly/c25LgE

What do you think?

Agree or disagree with our data? What other data points would you like us to explore? Post your comment below and together we'll track how American Idol Season 10 plays out.

Put the Prediction Team to work for you

If we can use search and social media data to predict the results of American Idol, imagine what we can do to predict trends in your industry. Contact us today to find out how we can help you improve your presence online through search and social media.  

American Idol Influentials: Adam Lambert Impacts Google News

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American Idol Season 9? February 2010? Sorry, we had to question that ourselves when we looked at the search and social media data following American Idol's Guys Top 12 show. Why?

Show contestant Todrick Hall is running neck and neck with pre-show favorite Andrew (don't call him Andy) Garcia in Google News results. Garcia earned that popularity with a bold, acoustic version of Paula Abdul's "Straight Up" during the Hollywood Auditions. But Hall? We didn't see that coming.

That's the beauty of this American Idol Prediction Project, we never know what we'll find in the data. Turns out Adam Lambert tabbed Hall as his "favorite", on a day when the man that beat him out for American Idol Season 8, Kris Allen, headlines the performances on the results show.

Twitter & Blog Data Predict First Guys to Leave Show

If you read our prior post noting the American Idol Top 12 Girls we think are in trouble in tonight's elimination, you'll know that we wanted to use social media and news data early on this year while the search trend data builds. We narrowed down the list of the two girls that will leave tonight to the three most likely, with another two on the fence. With the guys, it's more difficult to discerne which two will leave American Idol this week.

We would assume that any Guy with both good Twitter mentions and news result lift (over baseline, lowest news results by Michael Lynche) would be safe. While any American Idol Top 12 Guy with low numbers on both would be in trouble. But what do you do with the Guys who have mixed data? Please, look at the chart below and tell us what you think. Here's what we see:

Safe: Andrew Garcia, John Park, Tim Urban, Alex Lambert, Casey James.

Bottom 3 Bound:  Jermaine Sellers and Lee Dewyze.

Mixed Data:  The rest of them, who knows. To us Tyler Grady and Joe Munoz seem most at risk, followed by Aaron Kelly and Michael Lynche (although their Twitter pull should keep them safe this week).

Our Prediction: Of the two Guys leaving, they'll come from the group of Sellers, Dewyze, Grady and Munoz. 

Google & Twitter Predict Who'll Be Voted Off American Idol | ymarketing.com

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Finally! That's about all you can say if you're a fan of American Idol. Finally, there's more to talk about than Ellen and Simon. Finally, we get to Hollywood, get on with the competition, and get to vote some contestants off the show.

On Tuesday night American Idol showcased the Top 12 Girls, followed by the Top 12 Guys on Wednesday and a Thursday night elimination show where two from each group will be headed home. If you watched the show, tell us who you think is leaving this week with your comments below. But before you do, check out these facts.

NOTE: If you are a new reader to ymarketing's American Idol Prediction Project please check out our past blogs to understand our Idol Prediction work, and how it led to the correct upset prediction of Kris Allen over Adam Lambright last year.

Tweet Volume

We like to use TweetVolume as one quick and easy measure of popularity. The only drawbacks are you can't customize date ranges and you can't distinguish positive Tweets from negative ones. Still, it's a great tool for the pulse of the masses.

Looking at Tweet Volume following the American Idol Girls Top 12 show, we see some clear winners and losers. Ashley Rodriguez owns Twitter with 132,000 micro blog mentions, outpacing her nearest challenger, Janell Wheeler, by 3-to-1. (No surprise, as Randy Jackson called her "Simon's girl" on the show, in reference to his comments thus far in the competition.)

Besides Rodriguez and Wheeler, the only other Idol Girls showing Twitter strength are the young teenagers, Haeley Vaughn and Katie Stevens. Some Twitter activity centers on Lacey Brown, Lilly Scott and Didi Benami but the rest are off the RT radar.

News & Google News

This year we'll be taking a look at how the media can shape public opinion and influence who becomes the next American Idol. Case in point, Crystal Bowersox. This wholesome, natural musician from Ohio has one of the lowest Twitter mentions and appears to be the contrarian; perhaps the most anti pop-idol of the group. However, her guitar-harmonica rendition of "Hand in My Pocket" by Alanis Morissette struck a note with the press, placing Bowersox in headlines and lead images on USA Today, Newsday and more. (Perhaps no surprise, as her interaction with her young son has been one of the heart-warming stories of Season 9 to date.)

The net result of Bowersox's media coverage? She's safe. Looking at all News mentions and then again at just Google News articles within 24 hours of the show, Bowersox leads the news coverage. For our data chart below, we took the lowest number of news mentions as a baseline and noted incremental mentions. Our theory was there is some amount of press that all the Top 12 girls get, regardless of popularity, and we prefer to measure lift.

Who's in trouble? Google News Predicts the Bottom 3 Girls

Take a look at our Tweet Volume and News Heatmap. It clearly shows that Michelle Delamor, Paige Miles and Katelyn Epperly should plan on wearing comfortable shoes Thursday night, as they may never see the safety of the couch. The only other two that could slip into this bottom 3 appear to be Lacey Brown and Siobhan Magnus.

What do you think?

Agree or disagree with our data? What other data points would you like us to explore? Post your comment below and together we'll track how American Idol Season 9 plays out.

American Idol Judges Heat Up Google & Twitter | ymarketing.com

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Will Ellen or Simon Emerge as the Leader in Web Searches & Tweets

• Simon Cowell - Will he leave after this season? What about that contract?
• Ellen DeGeneres - Will she bring value to the viewers and How much will her Twitter Army affect this year's outcome?
• Paula Abdul - Will America miss her? Did she get a raw deal?
• Randy Jackson and Kara Dioguardi - How much attention can they attract amongst these dynamic personalities?

American Idol Trend & Research Methodology

Readers that followed this ymarketing Predicting Idol Winners blog series last year are familiar with our approach; we use online research tools that measure the impact and scale of searches, comments and buzz around an individual (or a brand) and assess their relative popularity online. While some of our much larger competitors used only search engine data to compile their predictions last season - and got it all WRONG, picking Adam Lambert as the winner - we focused instead on a much broader picture of online interest, factoring in data from Digg, Facebook, Twitter, iTunes, blogs and other social media.... and arrived at the documented CORRECT prediction that Kris Allen would win Idol.

Who's the Judge On Fire?

As USA Today's recent article and Idol Chatter Blog noted, the buzz this season is "all about the judges as Ellen arrives" and "Simon Cowell's exit." You might think that Simon Cowell would lead all judges in terms of popularity and buzz - especially with all the contract talk of late - but by Google and Twitter standards it's all Ellen. Worldwide interest in Ellen appears to have its epicenter in Canada, followed by the US, Singapore, Australia and South Africa.

The Most Tweets?

Ellen DeGeneres is by far and away the leader on Twitter as well. Hmmm, with three Twitter accounts of her own including @TheEllenShow (4 million followers), @Ellen_DeGeneres (85K) and this fan site @EllenFans (34K), I guess this Twitter thing actually works, huh? Simon, in contrast, appears to have just 21K followers @Scowell1 and four tweets to his name (lame, come on Simon!).

Twitter volume with the first names of the judges

Twitter volume with the full names of the judges

Digg

Digg - with a large following of over 40MM unique visitors - is another quality measure of online popularity. And the Idol Heatmap for Digg clearly shows Simon out front, followed by Ellen and Paula, with Randy and Kara bringing up the rear. 

Paula Interest Still High

Paula Abdul pulls in the 3rd place rank overall in interest in search and social media with relatively strong showings in both Twitter and Digg, while Randy and Kara are nearly non-existent.

Idol Interest

So what do you think? Will Simon and Ellen continue to dominate headlines throughout the year or will the contestant chatter takeover in coming weeks? Did anyone emerge in the debut show you think can draw significant interest?

If you are keeping score at home, for now it's:

• Simon Cowell - Digg #1
• Ellen DeGeneres - Google #1, Twitter #1
• Paula Abdul, Randy Jackson & Kara Dioguardi - So far in a clear trailing position
  

Google Insights Predicts Kris Allen Will Become the Next American Idol | ymarketing

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DATELINE: Los Angeles, Wednesday 05/20/09 @ 11AM PT

Regular readers of this blog know that we've been using search and social media data to predict the next American Idol. Since we began the blog we've identified Adam Lambert's overwhelming popularity within this data. You could even argue he's become a "brand" in and of himself. But several weeks back we also identified the rising popularity of Kris Allen. After the two faced off Tuesday, May 19 on the American Idol Finals performance show we knew this project begged for one last blog.

Who will be crowned Wednesday Night's Winner?

Looking at the cumulative data and trying to make the argument against Adam Lambert is like trying to argue that Simon Cowell has nice hair--not an easy task. But as we discussed in last week's Idol Prediction blog, The Search for an Upset: Could a Perfect Storm Propel Kris Allen into the Next American Idol, Adam seems to also be facing a mounting backlash. This seemingly happens to any favorite in just about any competition; America just loves an underdog.

In order to try to zero in on this idea of "momentum" playing a role in predicting the next American Idol, we turned to Google Insights. The results of analyzing both "kris allen" and "adam lambert" related terms were surprising:

• Looking at the Top 10 rising searches over the past 30 days, "kris allen" related terms have outpaced "adam lambert" related terms by 2 to 1
• Breakout terms, terms rising faster than Google calculates the rate of increase, show Kris with a 3 to 1 edge

Google Insights Top 10 Rising Searches - Past 30 days

• Looking at the same data over the past 7 days, Kris' lead of the Top 10 rising searches grows to
  nearly 3 to 1
• Breakout terms show Kris again with a 3 to 1 edge
• Terms rising at a rate greater than 250% show Kris with a slightly better than 2 to 1 lead

Google Insights Top 10 Rising Searches - Past 7 days

Beyond the overall numbers favoring Kris, there's even more evidence of Adam Lambert's popularity erosion when you look at the data on a ‘per name' basis. For instance, looking at just "kris allen" related terms over both the past 30 and past 7 days we see ONLY searches related to his name and Idol in Rising Searches.

However, looking at just "adam lambert" related terms over both the past 30 and past 7 days we see Kris invading these Rising Searches. This includes Kris owning the Top 2 and 3 of the Top 4 risers over the past 7 days. It's this Adam-related Kris surge that for the first time shows Kris not just near even with Adam, but instead as the dominant force.

The Prediction
If you look at all the data, as we stated in last week's blog this race is going to be close. Too close for ymarketing to predict the winner. But if you ask Google Insights, Arkansas' own Kris Allen will shock the world in the Finals Result show tonight, Wednesday, May 20, 2009.

NOTE: If you are interested in seeing some of our past data you can download it here:

• http://blog.ymarketing.com/idol-global-appeal/

The Search for an Upset: Could a Perfect Storm Propel Kris Allen into the Next American Idol? | ymarketing

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If you're a regular Idol Prediction Project reader you know we've been using Search and Social Media data to predict winners on Idol using: iTunes (purchase intent), Facebook (wall posts), Twitter, Digg and Google Search data... all with pretty good accuracy.

On Saturday May 9, 2009, Aubry, one of our blog contributors made this prediction in response to last week's post on who will be the ‘Challenger to Idol favorite Adam': "If Kris Allen exits this week, Adam will pick up a majority of his votes... Adam seems to be the #2 [favorite] of Kris fans and the young girls are Kradams. If however Gokey goes out, Kris will win because Gokey fans out and out dislike Adam." Could Aubry be right?

It's a lot closer than many people believe

On the May 13 results show Ryan Seacrest said, "More than 88 million votes were cast ... and only 1 million votes separated 1st and 2nd." If it's that close on a three-way race, and you assume that dedicated voters make up the majority of the "voting bloc", then it really comes down to: I) a surging Kris tightening the race; II) Danny Gokey's Swing Voters; III) Adam Lambert backlash. (And of course how the two finalists perform; let's not discount that important element!)

Perfect Storm Part I: "Heartless" from Allen tops "One" from Lambert

Kris is surging. Multiple Social Media and Search data sources confirm that fact. And his performance of Kanye West's "Heartless" Tuesday night may be a big factor. Past strong performances by Allen like his version of Falling Slowly "propelled Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova's 2-year-old original into the top 30 on iTunes' download chart," proving through purchase behavior that Allen does have market appeal. If only we could see the download figures for "Heartless"... anyone?

Facebook chatter (as measured by terms like ‘kris allen' and ‘adam lambert' appearing in wall posts) show Kris Allen taking a lead over Lambert for the first time this entire year. The chart below also showcases ‘kanye west' and ‘bono' for perspective on just how popular these two finalists have truly become.

Google Search data showed Adam with a nearly insurmountable lead (3X, 5X, 8X in some cases) up until this week, when tremendous acceleration for search terms featuring ‘Kris Allen' showed that lead severely diminished:

In fact, for the first time since we began measuring "breakout searches" on Google, Kris Allen posted MORE fast rising search terms than Adam (6 vs. 5):

USA Today blogs about how "If radio stations decided the American Idol winner this week, Kris Allen would have the edge. An early look at Mediabase numbers shows that Kris' version of Kanye West's Heartless has had 17 spins on 13 stations this week, barely beating out Adam's U2 cover, One, which 16 stations played once each." But if you total the Top 6 spins/stations, Kris has 22/17 to Adam's 18/18. Here's how the Mediabase numbers look for the week:

• 1. Kris Allen, Heartless: 17 spins/13 stations
• 2. Adam Lambert, One: 16 spins/16 stations
• 3. Kris Allen, Apologize: 5 spins/4 stations
• 4. Danny Gokey, You Are So Beautiful: 5 spins/4 stations
• 5. Danny Gokey, Dance Little Sister: 3 spins/3 stations
• 6. Adam Lambert, Cryin': 2 spins/2 stations

Other Indicators show the race tightening up as well. Globally Adam still maintains a lead over Kris, but the overwhelming distance that once separated them has evaporated:

On Digg, Adam's held a 4.5 to 1 advantage in the first week of May. That lead is down to 3-to-2 as of May 15, 2009 but Adam still holds the edge. Adam maintains leads on Twitter, YouTube and in the Blogosphere as well.

Perfect Storm Part II: Gokey Swing Votes

The conventional wisdom "around town", and our blog contributor Aubry, seems to be that Danny Gokey voters are more likely to cast their votes for Kris than they are for Adam. But we attempted to substantiate that hypothesis with Search and Social Media data and found out that's a pretty tough task - especially since the relevant data is just 2-3 days old. A search through the blogosphere (Google blog search) produced a split: a roughly equal number of "Danny Gokey fan" blogs say they'll vote Kris and Adam.

This original question appeared in the USA Today Blog on April 27^th when they speculated that Kris Allen could be a "game changer". "The flamboyant Lambert engenders devotion or distaste, the polar opposite of the more conservative Gokey. Allen's base could shift allegiance to Lambert, who shares his penchant for tinkering with arrangements, or they could align with Gokey, who like Allen serves as a church worship leader. Where those votes go might well determine the outcome."

Perfect Storm Part III: Adam Backlash

USA Today reported on their blog that a backlash may be brewing against Idol's Adam Lambert and cited several factors as to why this could be: 1) Idol producers gave Adam the final performance slot three straight weeks, 2) Simon Cowell's outright prediction of an Adam win on Oprah, and 3) Simon's heavy-handed "instructions" to the Idol audience about not forgetting to vote for the "favorite", Adam. USA Today even characterized the backlash as more of an "anti-judge backlash."

Search data we uncovered seems to underscore this same sentiment. VoteForTheWorst.com has a self-described mission to "support voting for the entertaining contestants who the producers would hate to see win on American Idol"). Sounds like a good place to track negative backlash; so we looked at search engine traffic ending up at the site. Adam Lambert appears as the #2 term, responsible for 87 times more traffic than the first Kris Allen term, which comes in at #273 for that site.

Final "American Idol" finale thoughts

The data shows it's too close to call; not a landslide for Adam as many predicted a few weeks back. In betting terms, Allen is what odds makers would call "a live dog".

Just the beginning?

We searched TweetVolume for clues on the Final Two this week and knew Gokey was in trouble. Then for fun we contrasted Idol with Britain's Got Talent 2009 sensation Susan Boyle. Looking at that data, we couldn't help but wonder when are we going to see the Idol World Cup? Susan Boyle vs. Adam Lambert (or Kris Allen?). Pay-Per-View numbers would be incredible! And TXT volume would probably crash cellular networks worldwide!! Hey Simon, when you use this great idea of ours please remember to make out our royalty checks to "ymarketing, LLC", OK?

Search & Social Media Data Split on Challenger to Idol favorite Adam Lambert | ymarketing

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If you've followed the Idol Prediction Project and our data download you already know we've been saying Adam Lambert, Danny Gokey and Kris Allen (your Final 3) were the strongest contestants based on the data. We showed weakness in Matt Giraud's search and social media numbers the week before he was cut; and last week this blog showed that Allison had the lowest level of Global Appeal, just prior to her exit.

This week it's a lot tougher to predict what's going to happen. Reason: Beyond Adam, the verdict is split.

Who's #2? The case for Kris

Digg, Google Blog Search and iTunes all point to Kris Allen as the clear challenger to Adam in the finals. When measuring all Diggs (stories, article and blogs deemed worthy of sharing by Digg's 36MM+ users) since April, Kris Allen has a commanding lead...for #2 (94 diggs for Kris vs. 76 diggs for Danny). But both trail Adam's 421 diggs over the same period of time.

A search of blogs mentioning "Kris Allen" turns up nearly 39,300 since April 1 (12,400 since May 1), while "Danny Gokey" tallies 27,600 since April 1 (and 11,600 since May 1). Adam fans: Yes, he's clearly #1 with 53,600 mentions since April 1 (19,200 since May 1). It's interesting to note, though, that Kris mentions on blogs in the month of March actually outnumbered those mentioning Adam.

iTunes is more tricky to gauge. But with the help of compete.com we were able to measure search referrals that resulted in traffic to iTunes.com; and received a welcome assist in the form of a story that MJ broke on MJs Big Blog. MJ's blog clearly shows Kris as the front-runner for the #2 slot*, as measured by the mysteriously appearing/disappearing iTunes popularity bars. (*Behind Adam, who is seemingly miles ahead, each and every week).

Who's #2? The case for Danny

Google Search Traffic points to Danny starting to open up a narrow lead for #2 as of Wednesday, April 6^th, from a virtual dead-heat with Kris leading up to Tuesday night. (Adam is #1...by a mile.)

Facebook wall posts give the edge to Danny over Kris by the slightest of margins leading up to Tuesday night and into Wednesday April 6^th. (Adam is #1... by a factor of 2-3X.)

Twitter data points to Danny having about a 40% edge this month to date with over 2,900 tweets vs. Kris with just 2,100 tweets. (Adam has over 8,800.)

YouTube site referrals (search queries on search engines that lead to a YouTube visit) have Adam out front with the #16 and #45 overall search queries and 137 distinct terms (words or phrases) leading to videos of Adam. Danny is #2 here with #976 query and 15 overall search terms, and Kris is a distant #3 with the #3,535 query and only 8 overall search terms.

And one final thought: Take a look at the only search terms related to Idol contestants that Google Insights deems a "breakout" for this past week (breakout seems to be defined as a search that's growing at a rate of over 700%):

Who will end up in the finals? Who will win? The latter just maybe entirely dependent on the former, as there may be a swing vote factor to consider. If as the data shows, Adam gets through, the challenger may have a chance to take him down IF the swing votes follow Danny or Kris. However, if Adam gets a large portion of Kris or Danny's swing votes, he may become unbeatable. We'll attempt to predict the swing vote factor using destination referrals prior to the finals.

What do you think? What is the most compelling data source from this week's blog? We'd love to hear from you.