Posted by General Team Login on Wed, May 26, 2010
On last night’s episode Crystal Bowersox and Lee DeWyze competed for the final time for the coveted title of American Idol. Each performed 3 songs, the first was their favorite song of the season, the second was chosen by executive producer Simon Fuller and the third is the first single they will release if they win tonight.
For his favorite song Lee chose “The Boxer.” The judges were pleased, for the most part, with his performance. Simon Fuller chose “Everybody Hurts” for his second song. The judges again gave Lee some positive feedback but Ellen said she wished he would have let go a bit more and Simon said he seemed nervous. For his final song, and possible single, Lee sang “Beautiful Day.” The judges were pleased with his final performance to which Simon said that the competition was designed for someone like him.
For her first song Crystal chose “Me and Bobby McGee” for which all of the judges gave Crystal positive feeback. The song Fuller chose for Crystal was “Black Velvet,” the judges were again impressed. And finally she sang “Up To The Mountain” for her last song, and potential single. The judges also praised her for this performance. In fact Simon said “I thought that was by far the performance and the song of the night. And since this is going to be the final critique I’m ever going to give, that was outstanding.”
In order to determine who is most likely to be named the Season 9 American Idol; we looked at social media and search data. Who do you think will win tonight?
If you have been keeping up with Season 9 please share your thoughts by commenting below. But before you do, check out the facts from search and social media data that we have gathered below.
Chatter about Lee DeWyze is much stronger on Twitter and Google than it is for Crystal. Tough Crystal has stronger showing on Digg and YouTube.
Google Insights:
Google Insight data shows an overwhelming growth in popularity of searches for “American Idol Lee,” “Lee DeWyze” and “American Idol Hallelujah,” which is a song Lee performed on the show.
Will Lee's sudden surge in online searches and social media mentions translate into more votes? Tell us what you think. And don’t forget to tune into tonight to find out who wins Season 9 of American Idol!
**If you are a new reader to ymarketing's American Idol Prediction Project, check out our past blogs to understand how our Idol Prediction Project works, and how it led to the correct upset prediction of Kris Allen over Adam Lambert in 2009.
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Posted by David Carpenter on Tue, Jan 12, 2010
Will Ellen or Simon Emerge as the Leader in Web Searches & Tweets
As the new season of American Idol begins this week - and before we get introduced to the new contestants and begin to know their names by sight and voice - the questions we want to know all center around the judges:
- Simon Cowell - Will he leave after this season? What about that contract?
- Ellen DeGeneres - Will she bring value to the viewers and How much will her Twitter Army affect this year's outcome?
- Paula Abdul - Will America miss her? Did she get a raw deal?
- Randy Jackson and Kara Dioguardi - How much attention can they attract amongst these dynamic personalities?
American Idol Trend & Research Methodology
Readers that followed this ymarketing Predicting Idol Winners blog series last year are familiar with our approach; we use online research tools that measure the impact and scale of searches, comments and buzz around an individual (or a brand) and assess their relative popularity online. While some of our much larger competitors used only search engine data to compile their predictions last season - and got it all WRONG, picking Adam Lambert as the winner - we focused instead on a much broader picture of online interest, factoring in data from Digg, Facebook, Twitter, iTunes, blogs and other social media.... and arrived at the documented CORRECT prediction that Kris Allen would win Idol.
Who's the Judge On Fire?
As USA Today's recent article and Idol Chatter Blog noted, the buzz this season is "all about the judges as Ellen arrives" and "Simon Cowell's exit." You might think that Simon Cowell would lead all judges in terms of popularity and buzz - especially with all the contract talk of late - but by Google and Twitter standards it's all Ellen. Worldwide interest in Ellen appears to have its epicenter in Canada, followed by the US, Singapore, Australia and South Africa.
The Most Tweets?
Ellen DeGeneres is by far and away the leader on Twitter as well. Hmmm, with three Twitter accounts of her own including @TheEllenShow (4 million followers), @Ellen_DeGeneres (85K) and this fan site @EllenFans (34K), I guess this Twitter thing actually works, huh? Simon, in contrast, appears to have just 21K followers @Scowell1 and four tweets to his name (lame, come on Simon!).
Twitter volume with the first names of the judges
Twitter volume with the full names of the judges
Digg
Digg - with a large following of over 40MM unique visitors - is another quality measure of online popularity. And the Idol Heatmap for Digg clearly shows Simon out front, followed by Ellen and Paula, with Randy and Kara bringing up the rear.
Paula Interest Still High
Paula Abdul pulls in the 3rd place rank overall in interest in search and social media with relatively strong showings in both Twitter and Digg, while Randy and Kara are nearly non-existent.
Idol Interest
So what do you think? Will Simon and Ellen continue to dominate headlines throughout the year or will the contestant chatter takeover in coming weeks? Did anyone emerge in the debut show you think can draw significant interest?
If you are keeping score at home, for now it's:
- Simon Cowell - Digg #1
- Ellen DeGeneres - Google #1, Twitter #1
- Paula Abdul, Randy Jackson & Kara Dioguardi - So far in a clear trailing position
For more information visit
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@ymarketing on Twitter or call 877.736.4321 x707
Posted by Donald Nosek on Wed, May 20, 2009
DATELINE: Los Angeles, Wednesday 05/20/09 @ 11AM PT
Regular readers of this blog know that we've been using search and social media data to predict the next American Idol. Since we began the blog we've identified Adam Lambert's overwhelming popularity within this data. You could even argue he's become a "brand" in and of himself. But several weeks back we also identified the rising popularity of Kris Allen. After the two faced off Tuesday, May 19 on the American Idol Finals performance show we knew this project begged for one last blog.
Who will be crowned Wednesday Night's Winner?
Looking at the cumulative data and trying to make the argument against Adam Lambert is like trying to argue that Simon Cowell has nice hair--not an easy task. But as we discussed in last week's Idol Prediction blog, The Search for an Upset: Could a Perfect Storm Propel Kris Allen into the Next American Idol, Adam seems to also be facing a mounting backlash. This seemingly happens to any favorite in just about any competition; America just loves an underdog.
In order to try to zero in on this idea of "momentum" playing a role in predicting the next American Idol, we turned to Google Insights. The results of analyzing both "kris allen" and "adam lambert" related terms were surprising:
- Looking at the Top 10 rising searches over the past 30 days, "kris allen" related terms have outpaced "adam lambert" related terms by 2 to 1
- Breakout terms, terms rising faster than Google calculates the rate of increase, show Kris with a 3 to 1 edge
Google Insights Top 10 Rising Searches - Past 30 days
- Looking at the same data over the past 7 days, Kris' lead of the Top 10 rising searches grows to
nearly 3 to 1 - Breakout terms show Kris again with a 3 to 1 edge
- Terms rising at a rate greater than 250% show Kris with a slightly better than 2 to 1 lead
Google Insights Top 10 Rising Searches - Past 7 days
Beyond the overall numbers favoring Kris, there's even more evidence of Adam Lambert's popularity erosion when you look at the data on a ‘per name' basis. For instance, looking at just "kris allen" related terms over both the past 30 and past 7 days we see ONLY searches related to his name and Idol in Rising Searches.
However, looking at just "adam lambert" related terms over both the past 30 and past 7 days we see Kris invading these Rising Searches. This includes Kris owning the Top 2 and 3 of the Top 4 risers over the past 7 days. It's this Adam-related Kris surge that for the first time shows Kris not just near even with Adam, but instead as the dominant force.
The Prediction
If you look at all the data, as we stated in last week's blog this race is going to be close. Too close for ymarketing to predict the winner. But if you ask Google Insights, Arkansas' own Kris Allen will shock the world in the Finals Result show tonight, Wednesday, May 20, 2009.
NOTE: If you are interested in seeing some of our past data you can download it here:
For more information visit
ymarketing.com, follow
@ymarketing on Twitter or call 877.736.4321 x707
