Posted by Donald Nosek on Wed, May 20, 2009
DATELINE: Los Angeles, Wednesday 05/20/09 @ 11AM PT
Regular readers of this blog know that we've been using search and social media data to predict the next American Idol. Since we began the blog we've identified Adam Lambert's overwhelming popularity within this data. You could even argue he's become a "brand" in and of himself. But several weeks back we also identified the rising popularity of Kris Allen. After the two faced off Tuesday, May 19 on the American Idol Finals performance show we knew this project begged for one last blog.
Who will be crowned Wednesday Night's Winner?
Looking at the cumulative data and trying to make the argument against Adam Lambert is like trying to argue that Simon Cowell has nice hair--not an easy task. But as we discussed in last week's Idol Prediction blog, The Search for an Upset: Could a Perfect Storm Propel Kris Allen into the Next American Idol, Adam seems to also be facing a mounting backlash. This seemingly happens to any favorite in just about any competition; America just loves an underdog.
In order to try to zero in on this idea of "momentum" playing a role in predicting the next American Idol, we turned to Google Insights. The results of analyzing both "kris allen" and "adam lambert" related terms were surprising:
- Looking at the Top 10 rising searches over the past 30 days, "kris allen" related terms have outpaced "adam lambert" related terms by 2 to 1
- Breakout terms, terms rising faster than Google calculates the rate of increase, show Kris with a 3 to 1 edge
Google Insights Top 10 Rising Searches - Past 30 days
- Looking at the same data over the past 7 days, Kris' lead of the Top 10 rising searches grows to
nearly 3 to 1 - Breakout terms show Kris again with a 3 to 1 edge
- Terms rising at a rate greater than 250% show Kris with a slightly better than 2 to 1 lead
Google Insights Top 10 Rising Searches - Past 7 days
Beyond the overall numbers favoring Kris, there's even more evidence of Adam Lambert's popularity erosion when you look at the data on a ‘per name' basis. For instance, looking at just "kris allen" related terms over both the past 30 and past 7 days we see ONLY searches related to his name and Idol in Rising Searches.
However, looking at just "adam lambert" related terms over both the past 30 and past 7 days we see Kris invading these Rising Searches. This includes Kris owning the Top 2 and 3 of the Top 4 risers over the past 7 days. It's this Adam-related Kris surge that for the first time shows Kris not just near even with Adam, but instead as the dominant force.
The Prediction
If you look at all the data, as we stated in last week's blog this race is going to be close. Too close for ymarketing to predict the winner. But if you ask Google Insights, Arkansas' own Kris Allen will shock the world in the Finals Result show tonight, Wednesday, May 20, 2009.
NOTE: If you are interested in seeing some of our past data you can download it here:
For more information visit
ymarketing.com, follow
@ymarketing on Twitter or call 877.736.4321 x707
Posted by David Carpenter on Fri, May 15, 2009
If you're a regular Idol Prediction Project reader you know we've been using Search and Social Media data to predict winners on Idol using: iTunes (purchase intent), Facebook (wall posts), Twitter, Digg and Google Search data... all with pretty good accuracy.
On Saturday May 9, 2009, Aubry, one of our blog contributors made this prediction in response to last week's post on who will be the ‘Challenger to Idol favorite Adam': "If Kris Allen exits this week, Adam will pick up a majority of his votes... Adam seems to be the #2 [favorite] of Kris fans and the young girls are Kradams. If however Gokey goes out, Kris will win because Gokey fans out and out dislike Adam." Could Aubry be right?
It's a lot closer than many people believe
On the May 13 results show Ryan Seacrest said, "More than 88 million votes were cast ... and only 1 million votes separated 1st and 2nd." If it's that close on a three-way race, and you assume that dedicated voters make up the majority of the "voting bloc", then it really comes down to: I) a surging Kris tightening the race; II) Danny Gokey's Swing Voters; III) Adam Lambert backlash. (And of course how the two finalists perform; let's not discount that important element!)
Perfect Storm Part I: "Heartless" from Allen tops "One" from Lambert
Kris is surging. Multiple Social Media and Search data sources confirm that fact. And his performance of Kanye West's "Heartless" Tuesday night may be a big factor. Past strong performances by Allen like his version of Falling Slowly "propelled Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova's 2-year-old original into the top 30 on iTunes' download chart," proving through purchase behavior that Allen does have market appeal. If only we could see the download figures for "Heartless"... anyone?
Facebook chatter (as measured by terms like ‘kris allen' and ‘adam lambert' appearing in wall posts) show Kris Allen taking a lead over Lambert for the first time this entire year. The chart below also showcases ‘kanye west' and ‘bono' for perspective on just how popular these two finalists have truly become.
Google Search data showed Adam with a nearly insurmountable lead (3X, 5X, 8X in some cases) up until this week, when tremendous acceleration for search terms featuring ‘Kris Allen' showed that lead severely diminished:
In fact, for the first time since we began measuring "breakout searches" on Google, Kris Allen posted MORE fast rising search terms than Adam (6 vs. 5):
USA Today blogs about how "If radio stations decided the American Idol winner this week, Kris Allen would have the edge. An early look at Mediabase numbers shows that Kris' version of Kanye West's Heartless has had 17 spins on 13 stations this week, barely beating out Adam's U2 cover, One, which 16 stations played once each." But if you total the Top 6 spins/stations, Kris has 22/17 to Adam's 18/18. Here's how the Mediabase numbers look for the week:
- 1. Kris Allen, Heartless: 17 spins/13 stations
- 2. Adam Lambert, One: 16 spins/16 stations
- 3. Kris Allen, Apologize: 5 spins/4 stations
- 4. Danny Gokey, You Are So Beautiful: 5 spins/4 stations
- 5. Danny Gokey, Dance Little Sister: 3 spins/3 stations
- 6. Adam Lambert, Cryin': 2 spins/2 stations
Other Indicators show the race tightening up as well. Globally Adam still maintains a lead over Kris, but the overwhelming distance that once separated them has evaporated:
On Digg, Adam's held a 4.5 to 1 advantage in the first week of May. That lead is down to 3-to-2 as of May 15, 2009 but Adam still holds the edge. Adam maintains leads on Twitter, YouTube and in the Blogosphere as well.
Perfect Storm Part II: Gokey Swing Votes
The conventional wisdom "around town", and our blog contributor Aubry, seems to be that Danny Gokey voters are more likely to cast their votes for Kris than they are for Adam. But we attempted to substantiate that hypothesis with Search and Social Media data and found out that's a pretty tough task - especially since the relevant data is just 2-3 days old. A search through the blogosphere (Google blog search) produced a split: a roughly equal number of "Danny Gokey fan" blogs say they'll vote Kris and Adam.
This original question appeared in the USA Today Blog on April 27th when they speculated that Kris Allen could be a "game changer". "The flamboyant Lambert engenders devotion or distaste, the polar opposite of the more conservative Gokey. Allen's base could shift allegiance to Lambert, who shares his penchant for tinkering with arrangements, or they could align with Gokey, who like Allen serves as a church worship leader. Where those votes go might well determine the outcome."
Perfect Storm Part III: Adam Backlash
USA Today reported on their blog that a backlash may be brewing against Idol's Adam Lambert and cited several factors as to why this could be: 1) Idol producers gave Adam the final performance slot three straight weeks, 2) Simon Cowell's outright prediction of an Adam win on Oprah, and 3) Simon's heavy-handed "instructions" to the Idol audience about not forgetting to vote for the "favorite", Adam. USA Today even characterized the backlash as more of an "anti-judge backlash."
Search data we uncovered seems to underscore this same sentiment. VoteForTheWorst.com has a self-described mission to "support voting for the entertaining contestants who the producers would hate to see win on American Idol"). Sounds like a good place to track negative backlash; so we looked at search engine traffic ending up at the site. Adam Lambert appears as the #2 term, responsible for 87 times more traffic than the first Kris Allen term, which comes in at #273 for that site.
Final "American Idol" finale thoughts
The data shows it's too close to call; not a landslide for Adam as many predicted a few weeks back. In betting terms, Allen is what odds makers would call "a live dog".
Just the beginning?
We searched TweetVolume for clues on the Final Two this week and knew Gokey was in trouble. Then for fun we contrasted Idol with Britain's Got Talent 2009 sensation Susan Boyle. Looking at that data, we couldn't help but wonder when are we going to see the Idol World Cup? Susan Boyle vs. Adam Lambert (or Kris Allen?). Pay-Per-View numbers would be incredible! And TXT volume would probably crash cellular networks worldwide!! Hey Simon, when you use this great idea of ours please remember to make out our royalty checks to "ymarketing, LLC", OK?
For more information visit
ymarketing.com, follow
@ymarketing on Twitter or call 877.736.4321 x707
Posted by David Carpenter on Fri, May 15, 2009
Stuck in Park?
As a follow up to a highly successful series where the ymarketing team predicted winners on American Idol, we're now turning our attention to what could be called "Doom In Detroit".
This is the first in a series where we will look at what Search and Social Media data can tell us about the relative chance each Auto Manufacturer, and its brand lines, stand of surviving the current economy.
Background
The most popular post in the Idol Prediction Project series was when we looked at purchase intent. In that blog post we examined how search engine referrals leading to iTunes had a high correlation with each contestant's popularity. Week after week our data showed us the favorites, and identified those that were likely to be leaving early. Five weeks before the Final 3 Idol contestants were announced, our data correctly predicted it would be Adam Lambert, Kris Allen and Danny Gokey. We utilized Search and Social Media popularity as a proxy for the popular vote that the TV show conducted each week, with great success.
Applying Learning to Detroit
When it comes to understanding the current automotive industry landscape and predicting its future shape--and with it each Auto Makers chance at survival--we believe the same logic holds. Although; this American Idle Prediction Project on Automotive OEMs will certainly present its challenges. For example: An inquiry into the volume of searches for "General Motors" these days yields a wealth of information, but nearly all of it is related to GM's government bailout, it's impending dealership closures, negotiations with the UAW and the like. Interesting, but not very helpful for predicting popularity and sales. But could an examination of all queries on Google for the search term "GM Dealership Chicago" yield the kind of results we're interested in; purchase intent?
Week One: Car Buyers Take Action After Researching Online
We took a look at one prominent car buying research site that served 6.3 million unique visitors last month, Edmunds.com, which ranks in the top 200 of all sites in the U.S. After visiting Edmunds.com, prospective buyers and tire-kickers alike venture off to well over 5,200 different sites (as measured by our data sources). These post-site visits are called "referral traffic" in search engine speak.
A significant portion of these post-site visits from Edmunds.com end up at the Auto Makers' own sites (fordvehicles.com and chevrolet.com), and many more end up at individual dealership sites (siouxcityford.com and hamiltonchevrolet.com as examples).
We wanted to see WHICH American Auto Makers are benefitting the most from this Referral Traffic and, arguably as important if not more important, which ones are growing month to month. Here's what we found over the last two months:
Week 1 Results
Ford is clearly in the lead with buyers who do their research on Edmunds.com. They have 55 different sites in the top 5,000 and all but a half dozen are dealerships. Their most prominent site, fordvehicles.com, ranked #19 overall and grew more than 4% last month alone. Fordvehicles.com also has a 10% edge over their largest competitor, GM's top site. Since Ford is a top tier and consistent advertiser on American Idol, it does beg the question: Is Idol responsible for helping Ford get out of Idle?
GM's top site, Chevrolet.com, ranks #22 and is in 2nd place. The site's traffic from Edmunds.com referrals actually grew at a faster rate than Ford's at 19.2%; so we look for a showdown in the coming months for the top Auto OEM slot. GM has 40 sites in the top 5,000, and 30 of them appear to be dealerships. It could be argued that GM overall gets more traffic from Edmunds.com. If you add up all the available data for the top 600 sites GM actually has an 8% edge in total referral traffic. But none of those top 600 sites are a dealership, so it bears further research and analysis before we can draw a conclusion.
Chrysler is hurting. If you read the news, you know that. This blog will certainly pay attention to the news cycle and see how it impacts purchase intent. But for now, we can quantify that Chrysler's top site, dodge.com, ranked #25 and is in 3rd place. The problem: the site saw its Edmunds.com referral traffic drop more than 9% last month. Chrysler has 36 sites in the top 5,000.
Encouraging signs: Chrysler appears to have the top two dealership sites (dodgedealer.com ranking #630 and windwarddodgechryslerjeep.com coming in at #649) and their #2 web property, chrysler.com, ranked #39 and grew at a rate of more than 50% last month.
What do you think?
What do you think of the premise of this blog series? Can purchase intent be measured by proxy using search and social media data? In coming blogs we will examine other data sources and yes, take a look at the global automotive industry as well. If you'd like to have input into the next installment, please share your ideas and opinions here.
For more information visit
ymarketing.com, follow
@ymarketing on Twitter or call 877.736.4321 x707
Posted by David Carpenter on Fri, May 08, 2009
If you've followed the Idol Prediction Project and our data download you already know we've been saying Adam Lambert, Danny Gokey and Kris Allen (your Final 3) were the strongest contestants based on the data. We showed weakness in Matt Giraud's search and social media numbers the week before he was cut; and last week this blog showed that Allison had the lowest level of Global Appeal, just prior to her exit.
This week it's a lot tougher to predict what's going to happen. Reason: Beyond Adam, the verdict is split.
Who's #2? The case for Kris
Digg, Google Blog Search and iTunes all point to Kris Allen as the clear challenger to Adam in the finals. When measuring all Diggs (stories, article and blogs deemed worthy of sharing by Digg's 36MM+ users) since April, Kris Allen has a commanding lead...for #2 (94 diggs for Kris vs. 76 diggs for Danny). But both trail Adam's 421 diggs over the same period of time.
A search of blogs mentioning "Kris Allen" turns up nearly 39,300 since April 1 (12,400 since May 1), while "Danny Gokey" tallies 27,600 since April 1 (and 11,600 since May 1). Adam fans: Yes, he's clearly #1 with 53,600 mentions since April 1 (19,200 since May 1). It's interesting to note, though, that Kris mentions on blogs in the month of March actually outnumbered those mentioning Adam.
iTunes is more tricky to gauge. But with the help of compete.com we were able to measure search referrals that resulted in traffic to iTunes.com; and received a welcome assist in the form of a story that MJ broke on MJs Big Blog. MJ's blog clearly shows Kris as the front-runner for the #2 slot*, as measured by the mysteriously appearing/disappearing iTunes popularity bars. (*Behind Adam, who is seemingly miles ahead, each and every week).
Who's #2? The case for Danny
Google Search Traffic points to Danny starting to open up a narrow lead for #2 as of Wednesday, April 6th, from a virtual dead-heat with Kris leading up to Tuesday night. (Adam is #1...by a mile.)
Facebook wall posts give the edge to Danny over Kris by the slightest of margins leading up to Tuesday night and into Wednesday April 6th. (Adam is #1... by a factor of 2-3X.)
Twitter data points to Danny having about a 40% edge this month to date with over 2,900 tweets vs. Kris with just 2,100 tweets. (Adam has over 8,800.)
YouTube site referrals (search queries on search engines that lead to a YouTube visit) have Adam out front with the #16 and #45 overall search queries and 137 distinct terms (words or phrases) leading to videos of Adam. Danny is #2 here with #976 query and 15 overall search terms, and Kris is a distant #3 with the #3,535 query and only 8 overall search terms.
And one final thought: Take a look at the only search terms related to Idol contestants that Google Insights deems a "breakout" for this past week (breakout seems to be defined as a search that's growing at a rate of over 700%):
Who will end up in the finals? Who will win? The latter just maybe entirely dependent on the former, as there may be a swing vote factor to consider. If as the data shows, Adam gets through, the challenger may have a chance to take him down IF the swing votes follow Danny or Kris. However, if Adam gets a large portion of Kris or Danny's swing votes, he may become unbeatable. We'll attempt to predict the swing vote factor using destination referrals prior to the finals.
What do you think? What is the most compelling data source from this week's blog? We'd love to hear from you.
For more information visit
ymarketing.com, follow
@ymarketing on Twitter or call 877.736.4321 x707
Posted by Ryan Lash on Tue, May 05, 2009
Admittedly I borrowed this idea from JB's Searchblog, as I used to work off of a setup like his several years ago. I also have to give credit to the original Lifehackers.
As a Search Engine Optimizer (SEO) by trade, my obsessive compulsiveness (OCD) has poured over into my every day personal and work life. I now end up 'twacking' everything, work stations included!
Also, as a serial entrepreneur I am always extremely busy and do everything possible to increase productivity; in addition to working for my Search Engine Marketing Firm I also own/operate a Sports Nutrition Company and am producing a TV Show (will have more info on this shortly).
The SystemWhat we have here (besides failure to communicate) is a system comprising of 5 machines (from left to right):
-PowerBook G4
-HP Pavilion (backup box)
-Apple iPhone (8 gigger)
-HP Dual Core Pavilion (primary box)
-HP Pavilion Tablet PC
All computers share 1 primary terminal (keyboard + mouse) and 3 19" Samsung Monitors via the use of software (synergy) and hardware (IOGEAR KVM Switch) .
The End Result?
1) 300% increased productivity
2) ZERO Downtime
3) A lot of toys to play with (='s fun)
-The MADD Man
PS: Please feel free to tap me on the shoulder during lunchtime at the next industry event and I will gladly show you how to optimize a sandwich :).
For more information visit
ymarketing.com, follow
@ymarketing on Twitter or call 877.736.4321 x707
