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Now that GM stands for “Government Motors” – let’s look under the hood | ymarketing

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Can Search and Social Media data predict the value, the interest, the likelihood that an individual division of GM will survive? As readers of this blog know, we successfully used this very same data to predict winners and losers of American Idol. This time we turned our data and analysis to three key pistons inside the engine of GM that are likely to play a major role in the bankruptcy, sell-off and self-dubbed company "reinvention": Cadillac, Hummer and Saturn.

Cadillac - down but not forgotten

In the green we've charted Cadillac's unit sales over the last two years (annual volumes shown) and estimated a small downturn for 2009. The blue line indicates the relative interest in Cadillac as shown by volume of search queries across Google in the automotive category alone ("Cadillac Margaritas", for example, would not show up in these results). Using search volume as a proxy for consumer interest, we can see that interest in Cadillac has remained fairly high, with an index of 73 for Q2 of 2009 - nearly the same as the 75 index in Q4 2007. Although interest has been a bit higher (the peak was an index of 83 in Q1 2008) and a bit lower (the low was 69 in Q3 2008), it has remained relatively consistent across the last 7 quarters.

But what about Social Media? Using Facebook Lexicon as a proxy for Consumer Interest (what Facebook's 200 million members write about on each other's "walls"), we see a slightly different picture. Cadillac mentions peaked in Q4 2007, had a brief resurgence around the Holidays of last year, but have been falling ever since. With an index of 41 now vs. 73 in 2007, Cadillac's Social Media index is now off more than 40%.

Since a careful analysis of both Facebook and Google data revealed the winner of American Idol, we're going to keep close tabs on both of these disparate data sources for now. However, if we follow the assumption that Facebook represents consumer perception, higher up the sales funnel than Google search, one might assume that Cadillac search and purchase interest might wane in coming quarters.

Hummer - a lost cause (but you knew that)

Hummer interest is off the charts... in a bad way. Google search interest is way off, down to an index of 39 from a high 67 in Q1 2008 (off more than 40%).  Facebook chatter paints the same picture: In Q2 2009 the index is 64, down from the high in Q2 2008 of 97 - a drop of nearly 35%. It seems that the oil crisis of Summer 2008 may have doomed this brand for good. Sales figures from GM confirm this fact as well, as Hummer posted less than half the 2008 sales as in 2007.

Saturn - sales holding steady, but interest is falling out of orbit

Studying the search and social media around the Saturn automobile brand by sticking to just automotive categories - carefully excluding the search mania centered around "Viewing Saturn" as it approached Earth in July of 2008 - shows us that while sales volume drop off (22% drop from 2007 to 2008) Saturn has fared better than most GM divisions. But, this particular division just doesn't seem to get people "talking" (or more accurately put, searching or writing wall posts).

Worldwide Google search volume for the Saturn brand peaked last Summer (while fuel approached $5/gallon) but has dropped off considerably since that time; from a high index of 65 in Q3 2008 to just 42 in Q2 2009 (a drop of more than 35%).

The Facebook index paints a similar picture: The most recent quarter's index of 29 is down more than 35% from last Summer's high of 45.

What's even more interesting?

You can compare the Facebook indices between the brands, and you see a picture that emerges like this for the most recent quarter:

What's Surprising? Hummer has by far the most interest among Facebook's masses, and Saturn has the least; the inverse of their sales figures. What we've learned from analyzing Facebook for some time now is that the TRENDS are far more important than the overall volume of data, and trend-wise it doesn't look good for any of these three falling brands.

What about Google? We can compare the indices for 2009 here as well:

While overall interest among searchers is highest for Cadillac by nearly a 2:1 margin worldwide...

... Growth in searches is for Saturn is actually faring the best, with Cadillac making a surge in interest late in May 2009. Interest in Hummer has lagged the general category for all of 2009.

We're talking about Global data for Google Searches, so we asked the natural question: where are all these buyers?

Interest in the Cadillac brand is actually highest in Iraq (as measured by Google's weighted indices around the globe), followed by the US and Canada, with Estonia and Sweden rounding out the top 5.

The hot bed of Hummer searching is in Costa Rica, believe it or not, followed by three other Central and South American states. The US ranks 7^th, just behind Slovakia.

The Saturn brand appears to be almost entirely a North American phenomenon, likely owing primarily to distribution. Although there are pockets of interest in Europe and Mexico.

What do you think? How will Cadillac, Hummer and Saturn fare under the leadership - permanent or temporary - of the Obama Adminstration? Your opinion, comments and questions are welcomed here.