It’s Coca-Cola by 10 points - Super Bowl Commercials Social Media Predictions

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Come February 5, millions of people will be chattering on Facebook and Twitter about Ferris Bueller, vampires, John Carter, Adriana Lima, Elton John, Regis Philbin, William Shatner’s death, Mr. Squiggly, Star Wars, Mrs. Brown, John Stamos, Donald Trump, Motley Crue , Acts of Valor, polar bears, talking babies and the Pussycat Dolls.

Some people who aren’t paying much attention to the Super Bowl XLVI commercials might even talk about the New York Giants and New England Patriots.  But that will be only during those dry spells when the commercials aren’t on.

So which commercials will create the biggest buzz? Will comedy outperform inspiration? Will celebrities rule; and is it really worth the extra expense of having stars in a commercial? How long can a company keep a theme going in its commercials before America’s interest wanes? 

Last year, ymarketing’s Super Bowl Social Brand Scoreboard Report provided many answers to those questions by measuring key social media benchmarks – before and after the game – to show statistically which commercials generated the greatest social media buzz for their brands.

This year, in addition to coming out with next report after the Super Bowl, we have decided to predict some of the winners (For a full report on the predictions, be sure to download our PDF).

Our Predictions

We looked at tons of data and created an algorithm to help us with our predictions. Plus we've read a ton of material about the commercials (this year the pre-hype seems bigger than ever before).

We started with a bunch of categories that match those that will appear in  our Super Bowl Social Brand Scoreboard Report. They include:

• Facebook fans/likes - Both in terms of actual growth in numbers and in percent increase
• Twitter followers - Also raw numbers and percent growth
• Twitter mentions - The rate of increase in mentions during and after the Super Bowl as compare to the week before
• Social sentiment -Tbasically the ratio between positive and negative comments in the social- and blogosphere.
• YouTube viewers - How many check out the commercials online

For example, we're predicting that the odds on favorites for greatest inrease in actual Facebook fans/likes as a result of their Super Bowl commercials are: Disney, Coca-Cola, Google, PepsiCo’s Doritos and Kia of North America.

Here is a chart of the number of fans/likes that each of them have currently before the Super Bowl.

We also think that Bridgestone is going to do well, but not as well as these brands.

In our predictions report, you can read about all of our sub-category winners. And if you are curious about who is advertising this year, get the list from our last blog post.

Special Categories

For fun, we decided to break up our predictions into smaller categories. Here are the odds on favorites in each.

Top Automotive Brand

Odds on favorite – A tie between KIA and Chrysler

Top Food Brand

Odds on favorite – Doritos

Top Beverage Brand

Odds on favorite – Coca-Cola

Top Entertainment Brand

Odds on favorite - Paramount Pictures "The Dictator" with Sacha Baron Cohen

Top Celebrity

Odds on favorite - Adriana Lima

Top Recurring Theme

Odds on favorite – Star Wars

And the overall champion is:

Coca-Cola

Here is a chart that shows how we scored them.

So who do you think will generate the most social media buzz as a result of their Super Bowl advertisement? We'd love to hear your predictions and maybe even how you came to your conclusions.