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Can Google search data predict Idols with true Global Appeal? | ymarketing

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If you've followed the Idol Prediction Project you already knew that Matt Giraud's following (as interpreted from Search and Social Media data) was limited at best. So his Wednesday April 29th departure didn't come as a big surprise, given who he was up against. But now things get interesting.

A post on April 17th "Kris Allen Twitter Momentum" pointed to an uprising by Kris Allen, but last week's post showed continuing strength by Adam Lambert (who came in 3rd and 4th place respectively Wednesday night).

For this week we're taking a look at the question of whether any of the remaining Idols have what could be called truly Global Appeal? WHERE does a contestant's fan base appear to be coming from, what's the size, and is it localized or widespread?

To help us decipher the answer to these important questions we've turned back to search engine data, courtesy of Google, and supplemented this week's findings with data from Facebook and Twitter.

Top Findings:
1. Adam Lambert is a global phenomenon. He is more popular in the Philippines and Singapore than in the U.S.

2. Adam's U.S. support is by far the broadest, with pockets of strength ranging across the U.S., coast to coast.

3. Kris Allen enjoys similar popularity in the Philippines.

4. Kris Allen's U.S. support has an epicenter: Little Rock, Arkansas.
5. Danny Gokey's global popularity is more confined to North America, and his domestic reach is headquartered in NY.

6. Allison Iraheta's global reach is similar to Danny's, as is her U.S. popularity (NY state).

7. Search terms "adam idol" and "adam lambert idol" in some cases outnumber searches for "american idol" and outnumber all other contestants combined.
8. The hottest growing idol-related searches last week (Google calls them "breakout") were "American idol disco", "adam lambert disco" and "kris allen disco" - all growing at a rate of 500% or better.
9. Adam Lambert and Kris Allen continue to top Facebook wall posts, as measured on Wednesday April 29th in the morning.

Are you interested in seeing some more of the research facts for yourself? We've made 18 pages of maps, data and trend research available in one PDF, available free for download.

What do you think? Which Idols have global appeal and global potential? Why are Allison and Danny getting so many votes in proportion to the searches being conducted for #3 and #4 finishers Kris and Adam?