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Search & Social Media Data Split on Challenger to Idol favorite Adam Lambert | ymarketing

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If you've followed the Idol Prediction Project and our data download you already know we've been saying Adam Lambert, Danny Gokey and Kris Allen (your Final 3) were the strongest contestants based on the data. We showed weakness in Matt Giraud's search and social media numbers the week before he was cut; and last week this blog showed that Allison had the lowest level of Global Appeal, just prior to her exit.

This week it's a lot tougher to predict what's going to happen. Reason: Beyond Adam, the verdict is split.

Who's #2? The case for Kris

Digg, Google Blog Search and iTunes all point to Kris Allen as the clear challenger to Adam in the finals. When measuring all Diggs (stories, article and blogs deemed worthy of sharing by Digg's 36MM+ users) since April, Kris Allen has a commanding lead...for #2 (94 diggs for Kris vs. 76 diggs for Danny). But both trail Adam's 421 diggs over the same period of time.

A search of blogs mentioning "Kris Allen" turns up nearly 39,300 since April 1 (12,400 since May 1), while "Danny Gokey" tallies 27,600 since April 1 (and 11,600 since May 1). Adam fans: Yes, he's clearly #1 with 53,600 mentions since April 1 (19,200 since May 1). It's interesting to note, though, that Kris mentions on blogs in the month of March actually outnumbered those mentioning Adam.

iTunes is more tricky to gauge. But with the help of compete.com we were able to measure search referrals that resulted in traffic to iTunes.com; and received a welcome assist in the form of a story that MJ broke on MJs Big Blog. MJ's blog clearly shows Kris as the front-runner for the #2 slot*, as measured by the mysteriously appearing/disappearing iTunes popularity bars. (*Behind Adam, who is seemingly miles ahead, each and every week).

Who's #2? The case for Danny

Google Search Traffic points to Danny starting to open up a narrow lead for #2 as of Wednesday, April 6^th, from a virtual dead-heat with Kris leading up to Tuesday night. (Adam is #1...by a mile.)

Facebook wall posts give the edge to Danny over Kris by the slightest of margins leading up to Tuesday night and into Wednesday April 6^th. (Adam is #1... by a factor of 2-3X.)

Twitter data points to Danny having about a 40% edge this month to date with over 2,900 tweets vs. Kris with just 2,100 tweets. (Adam has over 8,800.)

YouTube site referrals (search queries on search engines that lead to a YouTube visit) have Adam out front with the #16 and #45 overall search queries and 137 distinct terms (words or phrases) leading to videos of Adam. Danny is #2 here with #976 query and 15 overall search terms, and Kris is a distant #3 with the #3,535 query and only 8 overall search terms.

And one final thought: Take a look at the only search terms related to Idol contestants that Google Insights deems a "breakout" for this past week (breakout seems to be defined as a search that's growing at a rate of over 700%):

Who will end up in the finals? Who will win? The latter just maybe entirely dependent on the former, as there may be a swing vote factor to consider. If as the data shows, Adam gets through, the challenger may have a chance to take him down IF the swing votes follow Danny or Kris. However, if Adam gets a large portion of Kris or Danny's swing votes, he may become unbeatable. We'll attempt to predict the swing vote factor using destination referrals prior to the finals.

What do you think? What is the most compelling data source from this week's blog? We'd love to hear from you.