Google & Twitter Predict Who'll Be Voted Off American Idol | ymarketing.com

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Finally! That's about all you can say if you're a fan of American Idol. Finally, there's more to talk about than Ellen and Simon. Finally, we get to Hollywood, get on with the competition, and get to vote some contestants off the show.

On Tuesday night American Idol showcased the Top 12 Girls, followed by the Top 12 Guys on Wednesday and a Thursday night elimination show where two from each group will be headed home. If you watched the show, tell us who you think is leaving this week with your comments below. But before you do, check out these facts.

NOTE: If you are a new reader to ymarketing's American Idol Prediction Project please check out our past blogs to understand our Idol Prediction work, and how it led to the correct upset prediction of Kris Allen over Adam Lambright last year.

Tweet Volume

We like to use TweetVolume as one quick and easy measure of popularity. The only drawbacks are you can't customize date ranges and you can't distinguish positive Tweets from negative ones. Still, it's a great tool for the pulse of the masses.

Looking at Tweet Volume following the American Idol Girls Top 12 show, we see some clear winners and losers. Ashley Rodriguez owns Twitter with 132,000 micro blog mentions, outpacing her nearest challenger, Janell Wheeler, by 3-to-1. (No surprise, as Randy Jackson called her "Simon's girl" on the show, in reference to his comments thus far in the competition.)

Besides Rodriguez and Wheeler, the only other Idol Girls showing Twitter strength are the young teenagers, Haeley Vaughn and Katie Stevens. Some Twitter activity centers on Lacey Brown, Lilly Scott and Didi Benami but the rest are off the RT radar.

News & Google News

This year we'll be taking a look at how the media can shape public opinion and influence who becomes the next American Idol. Case in point, Crystal Bowersox. This wholesome, natural musician from Ohio has one of the lowest Twitter mentions and appears to be the contrarian; perhaps the most anti pop-idol of the group. However, her guitar-harmonica rendition of "Hand in My Pocket" by Alanis Morissette struck a note with the press, placing Bowersox in headlines and lead images on USA Today, Newsday and more. (Perhaps no surprise, as her interaction with her young son has been one of the heart-warming stories of Season 9 to date.)

The net result of Bowersox's media coverage? She's safe. Looking at all News mentions and then again at just Google News articles within 24 hours of the show, Bowersox leads the news coverage. For our data chart below, we took the lowest number of news mentions as a baseline and noted incremental mentions. Our theory was there is some amount of press that all the Top 12 girls get, regardless of popularity, and we prefer to measure lift.

Who's in trouble? Google News Predicts the Bottom 3 Girls

Take a look at our Tweet Volume and News Heatmap. It clearly shows that Michelle Delamor, Paige Miles and Katelyn Epperly should plan on wearing comfortable shoes Thursday night, as they may never see the safety of the couch. The only other two that could slip into this bottom 3 appear to be Lacey Brown and Siobhan Magnus.

What do you think?

Agree or disagree with our data? What other data points would you like us to explore? Post your comment below and together we'll track how American Idol Season 9 plays out.