American Idol Season 9? February 2010? Sorry, we had to question that ourselves when we looked at the search and social media data following American Idol’s Guys Top 12 show. Why?
Show contestant Todrick Hall is running neck and neck with pre-show favorite Andrew (don’t call him Andy) Garcia in Google News results. Garcia earned that popularity with a bold, acoustic version of Paula Abdul’s “Straight Up” during the Hollywood Auditions. But Hall? We didn’t see that coming.
That’s the beauty of this American Idol Prediction Project, we never know what we’ll find in the data. Turns out Adam Lambert tabbed Hall as his “favorite”, on a day when the man that beat him out for American Idol Season 8, Kris Allen, headlines the performances on the results show.
Twitter & Blog Data Predict First Guys to Leave Show
If you read our prior post noting the American Idol Top 12 Girls we think are in trouble in tonight’s elimination, you’ll know that we wanted to use social media and news data early on this year while the search trend data builds. We narrowed down the list of the two girls that will leave tonight to the three most likely, with another two on the fence. With the guys, it’s more difficult to discerne which two will leave American Idol this week.
We would assume that any Guy with both good Twitter mentions and news result lift (over baseline, lowest news results by Michael Lynche) would be safe. While any American Idol Top 12 Guy with low numbers on both would be in trouble. But what do you do with the Guys who have mixed data? Please, look at the chart below and tell us what you think. Here’s what we see:
Safe: Andrew Garcia, John Park, Tim Urban, Alex Lambert, Casey James.
Bottom 3 Bound: Jermaine Sellers and Lee Dewyze.
Mixed Data: The rest of them, who knows. To us Tyler Grady and Joe Munoz seem most at risk, followed by Aaron Kelly and Michael Lynche (although their Twitter pull should keep them safe this week).
Our Prediction: Of the two Guys leaving, they’ll come from the group of Sellers, Dewyze, Grady and Munoz.