DATELINE: Los Angeles, Wednesday 05/20/09 @ 11AM PT
Regular readers of this blog know that we’ve been using search and social media data to predict the next American Idol. Since we began the blog we’ve identified Adam Lambert’s overwhelming popularity within this data. You could even argue he’s become a “brand” in and of himself. But several weeks back we also identified the rising popularity of Kris Allen. After the two faced off Tuesday, May 19 on the American Idol Finals performance show we knew this project begged for one last blog.
Who will be crowned Wednesday Night’s Winner?
Looking at the cumulative data and trying to make the argument against Adam Lambert is like trying to argue that Simon Cowell has nice hair–not an easy task. But as we discussed in last week’s Idol Prediction blog, The Search for an Upset: Could a Perfect Storm Propel Kris Allen into the Next American Idol, Adam seems to also be facing a mounting backlash. This seemingly happens to any favorite in just about any competition; America just loves an underdog.
In order to try to zero in on this idea of “momentum” playing a role in predicting the next American Idol, we turned to Google Insights. The results of analyzing both “kris allen” and “adam lambert” related terms were surprising:
- Looking at the Top 10 rising searches over the past 30 days, “kris allen” related terms have outpaced “adam lambert” related terms by 2 to 1
- Breakout terms, terms rising faster than Google calculates the rate of increase, show Kris with a 3 to 1 edge
Google Insights Top 10 Rising Searches – Past 30 days
- Looking at the same data over the past 7 days, Kris’ lead of the Top 10 rising searches grows to
nearly 3 to 1
- Breakout terms show Kris again with a 3 to 1 edge
- Terms rising at a rate greater than 250% show Kris with a slightly better than 2 to 1 lead
Google Insights Top 10 Rising Searches – Past 7 days
Beyond the overall numbers favoring Kris, there’s even more evidence of Adam Lambert’s popularity erosion when you look at the data on a ‘per name’ basis. For instance, looking at just “kris allen” related terms over both the past 30 and past 7 days we see ONLY searches related to his name and Idol in Rising Searches.
However, looking at just “adam lambert” related terms over both the past 30 and past 7 days we see Kris invading these Rising Searches. This includes Kris owning the Top 2 and 3 of the Top 4 risers over the past 7 days. It’s this Adam-related Kris surge that for the first time shows Kris not just near even with Adam, but instead as the dominant force.
If you look at all the data, as we stated in last week’s blog this race is going to be close. Too close for ymarketing to predict the winner. But if you ask Google Insights, Arkansas’ own Kris Allen will shock the world in the Finals Result show tonight, Wednesday, May 20, 2009.
NOTE: If you are interested in seeing some of our past data you can download it here: